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LAIKI BANK Private Bank · Est. 1901
LAIKI BANK

The Briefing

Insights & News

Economic research and market commentary from our investment office, alongside news from across the bank — written for clients who think in decades, not quarters.

Macro & Markets·Featured·

ECB holds the line: what a slower easing path means for European savers

With eurozone headline inflation settling near 2.1%, the Governing Council has signalled a more gradual path for rate cuts than markets had priced in the spring. We examine what a "higher-for-longer plateau" implies for cash, short-duration bonds and the cost of leverage — and why the case for locking in today's deposit yields is stronger than the consensus suggests.

Read the briefing Sofia Pavlou · Chief Investment Officer

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Macro & Markets·

ECB holds the line: what a slower easing path means for European savers

By Sofia Pavlou, Chief Investment Officer

The Governing Council's latest communication marks a deliberate shift in tone: rate cuts will continue, but the pace will be patient. For savers and conservative investors, that is not bad news — it extends the window in which cash and short-duration bonds pay a meaningful real return.

With eurozone headline inflation easing toward the 2% target and wage growth moderating, the conditions for further easing are in place. Yet the Council appears wary of cutting too quickly into still-firm services prices. The result is what we describe as a "higher-for-longer plateau": a policy rate that drifts lower in measured steps rather than a rapid descent.

Three implications for portfolios

Cash is still being paid for. Deposit and money-market yields remain attractive in real terms. For clients holding strategic liquidity, this is a moment to lock in terms rather than wait for cuts that may arrive slowly.

Short duration over long. The front end of the curve offers most of the yield with a fraction of the interest-rate sensitivity. We continue to favour two- to five-year exposure over the long end.

The cost of leverage stays elevated. Borrowers — and leveraged strategies — should not assume relief is imminent. We are stress-testing client structures against a scenario in which rates settle higher than forwards imply.

None of this changes the long-run discipline that defines stewardship at Laiki: diversification, quality, and a clear distinction between strategic and tactical capital. It simply means that, for now, prudence is being rewarded.

This commentary is provided for information only and does not constitute investment, tax or legal advice. The value of investments can fall as well as rise. Figures cited are illustrative for this prototype.

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